Boston Celtics at Utah Jazz odds, picks and prediction
The Boston Celtics (12-10) travel to Salt Lake City Friday for a 9 p.m. ET game against the Utah Jazz (14-7) at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Nets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Boston has won four of the past six games (2-4 ATS) including two straight over the Toronto Raptors this past weekend and the Philadelphia 76ers Wednesday. The Celtics are 12-10 ATS and 8-13-1 O/U with the 12th-ranked net rating.
Utah is also 4-2 over the last six games (3-3 ATS) and has won back-to-back over the New Orleans Pelicans Sunday and the Portland Trail Blazers Monday. The Jazz are 12-9 ATS and 10-11 O/U with the second-best net rating.
The Jazz have beaten the Celtics in five of their last six meetings including both regular-season games last year. The Under is 4-2 in those contests.
Celtics at Jazz odds, spread and lines
- Money line: Celtics +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Jazz -380 (bet $380 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Celtics +7.5 (-107) | Jazz -7.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Celtics at Jazz key injuries
- SF Jaylen Brown (rest) questionable
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
Celtics at Jazz odds, lines, picks and predictions
Jazz 107, Celtics 103
PASS with a slight "lean" to the Celtics (+290) because I like them plus the points and Boston is 6-3 overall in games Jaylen Brown misses.
However, those three losses were on the road vs. teams with a winning record and the Jazz (-380) have won 75.3% of their home games since the start of 2019.
BET the CELTICS +7.5 (-107) because they have been better against teams with a winning record and more efficient vs. good defenses.
For instance, Boston is 5-1 ATS on the road vs. teams above-.500 whereas Utah is 2-4 ATS vs. teams with above-.500. Furthermore, against teams top-10 in defensive rating, the Celtics are plus-4.2 in efficiency differential and have sixth-best ATS margin.
While the Jazz have a plus-0.6 efficiency differential and the 18th-best ATS margin (minus-3.5) vs. top-10 defenses. Also, Utah attempts the highest volume of 3-pointers and uses pick-and-roll action at the third-highest frequency.
Boston's defense is seventh in shot quality allowed field goals off pick-and-roll ball screens (according to ShotQuality.com) and sixth-best in opponent's 3-point percentage in non-garbage time (according to CleaningTheGlass.com).
On top of that, Boston could create open looks by screening Utah's defenders. The Celtics generate the third-most shot attempts off screens (ShotQuality.com) and Utah allows the 25th-worst shot quality vs. attempts off of screens.
Lastly, according to Pregame.com, money is flooding in on the Celtics but the public bets are almost even. Oddsmakers have reacted by lowering Boston's spread from the 9-point opener.
I'm not crazy about following a lopsided market but the CELTICS +7.5 (-107) feels like the sharp bet.
PASS with a "lean" to the Under 210.5 (-112) because the sportsbooks have made the Under more expensive for a reason and both teams are elite defensively.
But, we'd be getting the worst of the number at this point since the total has been steamed down from the 213-point opener.
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