Minnesota Timberwolves at Brooklyn Nets odds, picks and prediction
The Minnesota Timberwolves (11-11) meet the Brooklyn Nets (15-6) Friday at Barclays Center for a 7:30 p.m. ET game. Below, we look at the Timberwolves vs. Nets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Brooklyn has won five of its past six games (2-4 ATS), which includes a 112-110 victory over the New York Knicks Monday. The Nets are 9-12 ATS and 10-11 O/U with the fifth-best net rating.
Minnesota has won seven of the last nine games (6-3 ATS) but lost its most recent, 115-107, at the Washington Wizards Wednesday. The T-Wolves are 10-12 ATS and 9-13 O/U with the 11th-best net rating.
The Nets beat the T-Wolves in both regular-season meetings last year and the Under cashed in each game.
Timberwolves at Nets odds, spread and lines
- Money line: Timberwolves +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Nets -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Timberwolves +7.5 (-115) | Nets -7.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Timberwolves at Nets key injuries
- SF Anthony Edwards (illness) probable
- F Jaden McDaniels (illness) probable
- C Karl-Anthony Towns (back) questionable
- PG Patrick Beverley (groin) out
- SG Joe Harris (ankle) out
Timberwolves at Nets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Nets 114, Timberwolves 111
PASS with a heavy "lean" to the Timberwolves (+260) because I'll generally sprinkle on an underdog's money line when betting them to cover. However, there's no way I can bet Minnesota outright before Karl-Anthony Towns' game status is officially announced.
Also, Brooklyn is a more bankable team in close-game situations. For instance, the Nets are 7-1 overall in the clutch (defined by a game within a five-point margin with five minutes remaining) with a plus-38.7 net rating. The T-Wolves are 5-6 overall in the clutch with a minus-27.7 net rating.
BET 1 unit on the TIMBERWOLVES +7.5 (-115) because they match up well with Brooklyn stylistically, Minnesota has been hit by "sharp money", and the Nets have underperformed at home thus far.
For instance, Brooklyn attempts the most shots out of isolation offense, the third-highest volume of mid-range jumpers, and the fifth-most shots out of the post, according to ShotQuality.com.
Whereas Minnesota's defense is second in shot quality allowed vs. isolation offense and 11th in defensive mid-range field goal percentage.
Plus the T-Wolves get a bunch of easy buckets and the Nets allow easy buckets. Minnesota averages the most points off turnovers, most second-chance points and the 10th-most fastbreak points per game.
Brooklyn's defense allows the 23rd-worst points off turnovers, 18th-worst second-chance points, and 29th-worst fastbreak points per game. Furthermore, the Nets are 24th in putback plays per miss and the T-Wolves score points per miss on putbacks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Lastly, Minnesota opened as an 8-point underdog but early action has steamed the T-Wolves down to the current price. While I'm nervous about KAT's game status, apparently the "wiseguys" are not.
Let's follow the money and BET TIMBERWOLVES +7.5 (-115).
PASS because I could make cases for both sides of the total.
Both teams play at an above-average pace and we've already discussed how Minnesota can score easy buckets. But, few players make scoring look easier than Nets' superstars Kevin Durant and James Harden.
That said, the T-Wolves have the seventh-best defensive effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and the Nets are first in defensive eFG%.
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